Will Sean Conroy win the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election?

Q: Will Sean Conroy win the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 0.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 11011.1% over 13d.

York—Simcoe Provincial By-Election Winner$11k liquidity$360 volumecloses 13d

CanadaPoliticsElectionsby electionMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.9¢
Implied chance: 0.9%
Return if right: 11011.1%
Spread cost: 45%

If you put in $100

You get 11111.1 shares at 0.9¢ each.

YES wins: $11111.11 back, a profit of $11011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8888.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $19900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.9¢
Implied chance: 99.9%
Return if right: 0.1%
Spread cost: 80%

If you put in $100

You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.

NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.50.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 22, 04:00 AM1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).