Will Sean Collinson win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?

Q: Will Sean Collinson win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 0%. A YES share costs 0.4¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 24900.0% over 2.8mo.

California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner$9k liquidity$1k volumecloses 2.8mo

ElectionsUS ElectionCalifornia MidtermPolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.4¢
Implied chance: 0.4%
Return if right: 24900.0%
Spread cost: 25%

If you put in $100

You get 25000.0 shares at 0.4¢ each.

YES wins: $25000.00 back, a profit of $24900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8333.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $33233.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.8¢
Implied chance: 99.8%
Return if right: 0.2%
Spread cost: 33%

If you put in $100

You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.

NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.30.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 05:21 PM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.