Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 33.0¢
- Implied chance
- 33.0%
- Return if right
- 203.0%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 303.0 shares at 33.0¢ each.
YES wins: $303.03 back, a profit of $203.03. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $14.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $217.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 70.0¢
- Implied chance
- 70.0%
- Return if right
- 42.9%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 142.9 shares at 70.0¢ each.
NO wins: $142.86 back, a profit of $42.86. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.13 of that profit. Without it you would make $45.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 09:31 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersHeadlines are matched on the names in “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.