Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.8¢
- Implied chance
- 6.8%
- Return if right
- 1370.6%
- Spread cost
- 16%
If you put in $100
You get 1470.6 shares at 6.8¢ each.
YES wins: $1470.59 back, a profit of $1370.59. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $268.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $1639.13.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.3¢
- Implied chance
- 95.3%
- Return if right
- 4.9%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 104.9 shares at 95.3¢ each.
NO wins: $104.93 back, a profit of $4.93. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.17 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.10.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 03:59 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ukraine drone strike on oil refinery deep inside Russia kills at least 13The Guardian · 53m ago
- ‘Long-range sanctions’: Ukraine hopes strikes cause Russia fear and lossesAl Jazeera · 4h ago
- At least 13 killed in Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s NizhnekamskAl Jazeera · 5h ago
- Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia kill at least 13, authorities sayCBS News · 5h ago
- Ukrainian Drone Attack Kills 13 Deep Inside RussiaThe New York Times · 7h ago
- Ukraine Drone Attack on Industrial City in Russia Kills at Least 13The New York Times · 7h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.