Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $83.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.0¢
- Implied chance
- 93.0%
- Return if right
- 7.5%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.
NO wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russia: Top court bans opposition anti-war party from voteDeutsche Welle · 3h ago
- Bipartisan House members introduce Graham’s Russia sanctions billThe Hill · 3h ago
- How a Counterintelligence Inquiry Into Trump’s Russia Ties Was DerailedThe New York Times · 3h ago
- Russia bars only party opposing war in Ukraine from parliamentary voteAl Jazeera · 4h ago
- Russia bars only anti-war party from electionsFrance 24 · 6h ago
- Russia bars only anti-war party 'Yabloko' from September parliamentary electionsFrance 24 · 6h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia invade another country in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.