Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 14.0¢
- Implied chance
- 14.0%
- Return if right
- 614.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 714.3 shares at 14.0¢ each.
YES wins: $714.29 back, a profit of $614.29. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $26.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $640.74.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 87.0¢
- Implied chance
- 87.0%
- Return if right
- 14.9%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 114.9 shares at 87.0¢ each.
NO wins: $114.94 back, a profit of $14.94. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $15.61.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russia’s ‘new doctrine’ targets civilian sites in Ukraine, Zelenskyy saysAl Jazeera · 14h ago
- US, Russia talks on Ukraine involve oil deal tied to Kushner, Witkoff: ReportThe Hill · 15h ago
- Russia Turns to Striking Kyiv’s Bridges, Threatening a Vital LifelineThe New York Times · 15h ago
- U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine Now Involve an Oil Deal Tied to Trump AlliesThe New York Times · 18h ago
- Ukraine to step up oil attacks as Russia hits Kyiv bridgesDeutsche Welle · 19h ago
- Russia strikes another major bridge in Kyiv, says mayorDeutsche Welle · 19h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.