Will Russia invade a NATO country by September 30, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.9¢
- Implied chance
- 0.9%
- Return if right
- 11011.1%
- Spread cost
- 45%
If you put in $100
You get 11111.1 shares at 0.9¢ each.
YES wins: $11111.11 back, a profit of $11011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8888.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $19900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.9¢
- Implied chance
- 99.9%
- Return if right
- 0.1%
- Spread cost
- 80%
If you put in $100
You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.
NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Zelensky Warns Russia’s War Will Expand if It Is Not Ended SoonThe New York Times · 6h ago
- Rubio meets with Russia's Lavrov over war in UkraineCBS News · 9h ago
- In U.N. Speech, Zelensky Is Expected to Warn Russia’s War Won’t Stop at Ukraine’s BordersThe New York Times · 12h ago
- US says wants Ukraine, Russia to end strikes on energy sitesFrance 24 · 12h ago
- Zelenskyy set to address UN as Russia strikes KyivFrance 24 · 12h ago
- Zelenskyy set to address UN as Russia strikes KyivFrance 24 · 12h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia invade a NATO country by September 30, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.