Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?

Q: Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 5%. A YES share costs 5.4¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1751.9% over 4.7mo.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?$24k liquidity$53k volumecloses 4.7mo

GeopoliticsUkraine Map

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 5.4¢
Implied chance: 5.4%
Return if right: 1751.9%
Spread cost: 3%

If you put in $100

You get 1851.9 shares at 5.4¢ each.

YES wins: $1851.85 back, a profit of $1751.85. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $52.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $1804.76.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.9¢
Implied chance: 94.9%
Return if right: 5.4%
Spread cost: 3%

If you put in $100

You get 105.4 shares at 94.9¢ each.

NO wins: $105.37 back, a profit of $5.37. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.17 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.54.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 04:15 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Sumy (50.92932978689303° N, 34.81107584134934° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/qjS5sPf9YgTRYDii6) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.