Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 29.0¢
- Implied chance
- 29.0%
- Return if right
- 244.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 344.8 shares at 29.0¢ each.
YES wins: $344.83 back, a profit of $244.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $250.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 72.0¢
- Implied chance
- 72.0%
- Return if right
- 38.9%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.
NO wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $39.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russia: Top court bans opposition anti-war party from voteDeutsche Welle · 10m ago
- Bipartisan House members introduce Graham’s Russia sanctions billThe Hill · 17m ago
- How a Counterintelligence Inquiry Into Trump’s Russia Ties Was DerailedThe New York Times · 24m ago
- Russia bars only party opposing war in Ukraine from parliamentary voteAl Jazeera · 1h ago
- Russia bars only anti-war party 'Yabloko' from September parliamentary electionsFrance 24 · 3h ago
- Russia bars only anti-war party from electionsFrance 24 · 3h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.