Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 30.0¢
- Implied chance
- 30.0%
- Return if right
- 233.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 333.3 shares at 30.0¢ each.
YES wins: $333.33 back, a profit of $233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $238.98.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 71.0¢
- Implied chance
- 71.0%
- Return if right
- 40.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 140.8 shares at 71.0¢ each.
NO wins: $140.85 back, a profit of $40.85. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $41.84.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘Long-range sanctions’: Ukraine hopes strikes cause Russia fear and lossesAl Jazeera · 3h ago
- At least 13 killed in Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s NizhnekamskAl Jazeera · 4h ago
- Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia kill at least 13, authorities sayCBS News · 4h ago
- Ukrainian Drone Attack Kills 13 Deep Inside RussiaThe New York Times · 6h ago
- Ukraine Drone Attack on Industrial City in Russia Kills at Least 13The New York Times · 6h ago
- At least 13 killed in Ukrainian drone strike deep into RussiaBBC News · 6h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kup'yans'k-Pivdennyi railroad station (49.712076° N, 37.606819° E) located on Pryvokzalna vulytsia, in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+train+station.jpeg Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/9Pt8PPbQvWLerHLr6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.