Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 91.7¢
- Implied chance
- 91.7%
- Return if right
- 9.1%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 109.1 shares at 91.7¢ each.
YES wins: $109.05 back, a profit of $9.05. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.42 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 9.0¢
- Implied chance
- 9.0%
- Return if right
- 1011.1%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 1111.1 shares at 9.0¢ each.
NO wins: $1111.11 back, a profit of $1011.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $44.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $1056.07.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 04:27 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘They need each other’: What’s behind the new Syria-Russia accord?Al Jazeera · 27m ago
- US intelligence ‘believes Russia was behind Leipzig airport drone bomb’The Guardian · 33m ago
- Ukraine drone strike on oil refinery deep inside Russia kills at least 13The Guardian · 1h ago
- ‘Long-range sanctions’: Ukraine hopes strikes cause Russia fear and lossesAl Jazeera · 5h ago
- At least 13 killed in Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s NizhnekamskAl Jazeera · 6h ago
- Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia kill at least 13, authorities sayCBS News · 6h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.