Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 76.0¢
- Implied chance
- 76.0%
- Return if right
- 31.6%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 131.6 shares at 76.0¢ each.
YES wins: $131.58 back, a profit of $31.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $33.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 26.0¢
- Implied chance
- 26.0%
- Return if right
- 284.6%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 384.6 shares at 26.0¢ each.
NO wins: $384.62 back, a profit of $284.62. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15.38 of that profit. Without it you would make $300.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘The enemy is tearing our city apart’: terror in Kyiv as Russia ramps up attacksThe Guardian · 2h ago
- US Designates Russia's A7 Network as Transnational Criminal OrganizationDecrypt · 5h ago
- Russia’s Latest Propaganda? A.I.-Generated War Songs.The New York Times · 8h ago
- Russia tries to freeze Ukraine as it suffers record casualties and retreatsAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- Live: Kyiv in ‘very dramatic situation’ as Russia steps up bombing, mayor saysFrance 24 · 11h ago
- A Front Line at the Border: How Russia Uses Migrants as Weapons Against EuropeThe New York Times · 13h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.