Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.3¢
- Implied chance
- 6.3%
- Return if right
- 1487.3%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 1587.3 shares at 6.3¢ each.
YES wins: $1587.30 back, a profit of $1487.30. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $167.08 of that profit. Without it you would make $1654.39.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.9¢
- Implied chance
- 94.9%
- Return if right
- 5.4%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 105.4 shares at 94.9¢ each.
NO wins: $105.37 back, a profit of $5.37. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.04.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Zelenskyy says Russia using North Korean missiles in UkraineCBS News · 41m ago
- Russia using North Korean missiles to strike Ukraine, Zelensky saysBBC News · 46m ago
- 🔴 Live: Zelensky says Russia fired North Korean missiles at ZaporizhzhiaFrance 24 · 11h ago
- Russia: Top court bans opposition anti-war party from voteDeutsche Welle · 14h ago
- Bipartisan House members introduce Graham’s Russia sanctions billThe Hill · 14h ago
- How a Counterintelligence Inquiry Into Trump’s Russia Ties Was DerailedThe New York Times · 14h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.