Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31?

Q: Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31?

Prediction markets currently price this at 5%. A YES share costs 5.4¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1751.9% over 2.7mo.

Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by...?$6k liquidity$98k volumecloses 2.7mo

PoliticsGeopoliticsUkraine Map

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 5.4¢
Implied chance: 5.4%
Return if right: 1751.9%
Spread cost: 12%

If you put in $100

You get 1851.9 shares at 5.4¢ each.

YES wins: $1851.85 back, a profit of $1751.85. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $231.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $1983.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 95.8¢
Implied chance: 95.8%
Return if right: 4.4%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 104.4 shares at 95.8¢ each.

NO wins: $104.38 back, a profit of $4.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.04.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

December 314.8%

Latest: Oct 12, 01:12 AM

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Drobysheve, Donetsk Oblast, (49°02'31.4"N 37°43'54.7"E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Drobysheve will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375