Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 89.0¢
- Implied chance
- 89.0%
- Return if right
- 12.4%
- Spread cost
- 82%
If you put in $100
You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.
YES wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $55.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $68.07.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 70.0¢
- Implied chance
- 70.0%
- Return if right
- 42.9%
- Spread cost
- 71%
If you put in $100
You get 142.9 shares at 70.0¢ each.
NO wins: $142.86 back, a profit of $42.86. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $104.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $146.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russia bars only party opposing war in Ukraine from parliamentary voteAl Jazeera · 4h ago
- Ukraine drone strike on oil refinery deep inside Russia kills at least 13The Guardian · 8h ago
- ‘Long-range sanctions’: Ukraine hopes strikes cause Russia fear and lossesAl Jazeera · 12h ago
- Ukraine Drone Attack on Industrial City in Russia Kills at Least 13The New York Times · 14h ago
- Ukraine confirms strikes on oil refinery in Russia’s Tatarstan – as it happenedThe Guardian · 16h ago
- Russia and Ukraine exchange deadly overnight strikesFrance 24 · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by Septe…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.