Will Russell Fry win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.9¢
- Implied chance
- 6.9%
- Return if right
- 1349.3%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 1449.3 shares at 6.9¢ each.
YES wins: $1449.28 back, a profit of $1349.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $1359.85.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.2¢
- Implied chance
- 93.2%
- Return if right
- 7.3%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 107.3 shares at 93.2¢ each.
NO wins: $107.30 back, a profit of $7.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.35.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 10:25 PM7 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Previewing primaries in South Carolina, MinnesotaCBS News · 2h ago
- Pentagon renames South Carolina air base after GrahamThe Hill · 7h ago
- Will Darline Graham face the same fate Pamela Evette did in South Carolina?Politico · 1d ago
- Darline Graham tests value of a famous name vs. lack of experience in South Carolina primaryThe Hill · 2d ago
- DARLINE GRAHAM: I'm South Carolina's newest senator. This is who I am and what I believeFox News · 5d ago
- Four takeaways from the South Carolina GOP Senate debateThe Hill · 6d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russell Fry win the first round of the South Carolina R…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina. Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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