Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

Q: Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 7%. A YES share costs 6.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1370.6% over 1.1mo.

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner$4k liquidity$28 volumecloses 1.1mo

BrazilPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 6.8¢
Implied chance: 6.8%
Return if right: 1370.6%
Spread cost: 50%

If you put in $100

You get 1470.6 shares at 6.8¢ each.

YES wins: $1470.59 back, a profit of $1370.59. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1346.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $2716.90.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 92%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.38 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.68.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 31, 08:35 PM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Source: https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/