Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.5¢
- Implied chance
- 3.5%
- Return if right
- 2757.1%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 2857.1 shares at 3.5¢ each.
YES wins: $2857.14 back, a profit of $2757.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $84.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $2841.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.7¢
- Implied chance
- 96.7%
- Return if right
- 3.4%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 103.4 shares at 96.7¢ each.
NO wins: $103.41 back, a profit of $3.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.52.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.