Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.5¢
- Implied chance
- 3.5%
- Return if right
- 2757.1%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 2857.1 shares at 3.5¢ each.
YES wins: $2857.14 back, a profit of $2757.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $41.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $2798.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.6¢
- Implied chance
- 96.6%
- Return if right
- 3.5%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 103.5 shares at 96.6¢ each.
NO wins: $103.52 back, a profit of $3.52. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.