Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 63.0¢
- Implied chance
- 63.0%
- Return if right
- 58.7%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 158.7 shares at 63.0¢ each.
YES wins: $158.73 back, a profit of $58.73. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $61.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 39.0¢
- Implied chance
- 39.0%
- Return if right
- 156.4%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 256.4 shares at 39.0¢ each.
NO wins: $256.41 back, a profit of $156.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $163.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Top Republican unloads on rise of 'anti-American' candidates heading into midterms: 'You got to be kidding'Fox News · 13h ago
- Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and RepublicansNBC News · 16h ago
- Trump sets off on midterm blitz – are his trademark rallies a liability for Republicans?The Guardian · 18h ago
- Republicans say they hate communists. So why do they like Donald Trump?The Guardian · 18h ago
- Democrats Lead Governor Races Deep in Republican Territory, Polls ShowThe New York Times · 20h ago
- Latter-day Saints women turn away from scandal-plagued Republican candidate in ArizonaNPR · 20h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the winner, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards any party. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.