Will Republicans win 14–15% of the Black vote?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.0¢
- Implied chance
- 11.0%
- Return if right
- 809.1%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.
YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $202.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $1011.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.0¢
- Implied chance
- 93.0%
- Return if right
- 7.5%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.
NO wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.36 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 08:46 AM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Timothy Mellon, a G.O.P. Billionaire, Pulls Back His Money From Senate RepublicansThe New York Times · 8h ago
- Republican candidates in tight races distance themselves from Trump, Iran war ahead of midtermsCBS News · 9h ago
- Farm state Republicans feel the pressure from rising diesel pricesThe Hill · 10h ago
- Republicans outspend Democrats on ads in key Senate racesCBS News · 11h ago
- More Republican candidates break with Trump as midterms approachCBS News · 11h ago
- Nancy Mace: Republicans will ‘for SURE’ lose Senate race in North CarolinaThe Washington Post · 12h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Republicans win 14–15% of the Black vote?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.