Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.9¢
- Implied chance
- 1.9%
- Return if right
- 5163.2%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 5263.2 shares at 1.9¢ each.
YES wins: $5263.16 back, a profit of $5163.16. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2429.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $7592.31.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.3¢
- Implied chance
- 99.3%
- Return if right
- 0.7%
- Spread cost
- 46%
If you put in $100
You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.
NO wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Trump-backed Nevada Republican exaggerated Bronze Star award in two campaignsThe Washington Post · 2h ago
- Democrats hit Republicans with do-nothing charges after abrupt House adjournmentThe Hill · 3h ago
- House Democrat 'far less worried' about democratic socialists than Republicans 'complicit' with TrumpThe Hill · 4h ago
- Senate Republican: Iranian leaders 'part of a colony of reptiles' that also includes China, Russia, North KoreaThe Hill · 4h ago
- Young men are swinging away hard from Republicans, pessimistic about economy, new poll findsPolitico · 5h ago
- One Republican could hold back the party’s candidates in Pennsylvania. And it’s not Trump.The Washington Post · 9h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.