Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 29.0¢
- Implied chance
- 29.0%
- Return if right
- 244.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 344.8 shares at 29.0¢ each.
YES wins: $344.83 back, a profit of $244.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $250.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 72.0¢
- Implied chance
- 72.0%
- Return if right
- 38.9%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.
NO wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $39.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Top Republican unloads on rise of 'anti-American' candidates heading into midterms: 'You got to be kidding'Fox News · 13h ago
- Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and RepublicansNBC News · 16h ago
- Trump sets off on midterm blitz – are his trademark rallies a liability for Republicans?The Guardian · 18h ago
- Republicans say they hate communists. So why do they like Donald Trump?The Guardian · 18h ago
- Democrats Lead Governor Races Deep in Republican Territory, Polls ShowThe New York Times · 20h ago
- Latter-day Saints women turn away from scandal-plagued Republican candidate in ArizonaNPR · 20h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican party nominee fails to win one or more of the Senate races listed below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The relevant races are the currently-scheduled United States Senate races in: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida (Special), Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions. In the event that the winner of an election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that election will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.