Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 13.0¢
- Implied chance
- 13.0%
- Return if right
- 669.2%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 769.2 shares at 13.0¢ each.
YES wins: $769.23 back, a profit of $669.23. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $60.64 of that profit. Without it you would make $729.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 88.9¢
- Implied chance
- 88.9%
- Return if right
- 12.5%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 112.5 shares at 88.9¢ each.
NO wins: $112.49 back, a profit of $12.49. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $13.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- 47–49 and ≤19212.0%
- ≤46 and ≤19216.2%
- 50–52 and 208–22213.9%
- 50–52 and 193–20710.8%
- ≤46 and 193–2079.4%
- ≥53 and ≤2075.3%
Latest: Aug 10, 03:27 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Republican, Democratic strategists on controversial campaign funding ahead of midtermsCBS News · 17m ago
- Congressional Republicans have proven themselves unworthy to governThe Hill · 57m ago
- Max Miller locked in as Republican nominee after Ohio ballot deadline passes without withdrawalFox News · 22h ago
- Max Miller, Republican Accused of Abuse, Won’t Drop Out, Spokeswoman SaysThe New York Times · 2d ago
- Are Republicans blind to the canaries in the Florida and Texas coal mines?The Hill · 2d ago
- Blanche survives Republican defectors as Trump gets his new attorney generalFox News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seat…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. The number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. The number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Other outcomes in How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
- Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
- Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
- Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
- Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
- Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
- Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and ≤207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
- Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?
- Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
- Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 208+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?
- Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?
- Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?
- Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?