Will Recraft have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.5¢
- Implied chance
- 0.5%
- Return if right
- 19900.0%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 20000.0 shares at 0.5¢ each.
YES wins: $20000.00 back, a profit of $19900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8571.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $28471.43.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.8¢
- Implied chance
- 99.8%
- Return if right
- 0.2%
- Spread cost
- 43%
If you put in $100
You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.
NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.35.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 11:27 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Recraft have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of Au…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image
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