Will Rebels capture Gao by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 27.0¢
- Implied chance
- 27.0%
- Return if right
- 270.4%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 370.4 shares at 27.0¢ each.
YES wins: $370.37 back, a profit of $270.37. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $64.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $334.78.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 81.0¢
- Implied chance
- 81.0%
- Return if right
- 23.5%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 123.5 shares at 81.0¢ each.
NO wins: $123.46 back, a profit of $23.46. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $29.87.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘Ahsoka’ Season 2 Trailer: Ahsoka and Anakin Reunite as Grand Admiral Thrawn Declares War on the RebelsVariety · 1d ago
- ‘Ahsoka’ Season 2 Trailer: Ahsoka and Anakin Reunite as Grand Admiral Thrawn Declares War on the RebelsVariety · 1d ago
- Iran-backed Houthi rebels renew attacks on key port cityThe Hill · 5d ago
- Alleged rebel leader killed in Colombia as president targets armed groupsBBC News · 6d ago
- Houthi rebels launch new attacks on Saudi-backed troopsCBS News · 8d ago
- Houthi attacks kill at least 10 in Yemen as rebels target oil-rich MaribFrance 24 · 8d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Rebels capture Gao by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date. If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.