Will Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat win the special election to fill the Cavite 4th congressional district seat in the Philippine House of Representatives?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.3¢
- Implied chance
- 2.3%
- Return if right
- 4247.8%
- Spread cost
- 40%
If you put in $100
You get 4347.8 shares at 2.3¢ each.
YES wins: $4347.83 back, a profit of $4247.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2795.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $7042.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.5¢
- Implied chance
- 99.5%
- Return if right
- 0.5%
- Spread cost
- 65%
If you put in $100
You get 100.5 shares at 99.5¢ each.
NO wins: $100.50 back, a profit of $0.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.92 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.42.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 05:27 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat win the special election …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.
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