Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 70.0¢
- Implied chance
- 70.0%
- Return if right
- 42.9%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 142.9 shares at 70.0¢ each.
YES wins: $142.86 back, a profit of $42.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $48.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 35.0¢
- Implied chance
- 35.0%
- Return if right
- 185.7%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 285.7 shares at 35.0¢ each.
NO wins: $285.71 back, a profit of $185.71. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $21.98 of that profit. Without it you would make $207.69.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Raphaël Glucksmann67.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon94.7%
- Édouard Philippe84.5%
- David Lisnard56.0%
- Sarah Knafo39.5%
- Dominique de Villepin31.5%
Latest: Aug 18, 09:24 PM4 further outcomes not shown
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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