Will Raphael Warnock vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 21.8¢
- Implied chance
- 21.8%
- Return if right
- 358.7%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 458.7 shares at 21.8¢ each.
YES wins: $458.72 back, a profit of $358.72. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $170.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $528.93.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 41%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
NO wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.79 of that profit. Without it you would make $18.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 05:13 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ex-US defense secretary calls CLARITY Act a ‘national security bill’Cointelegraph · 17h ago
- Majority Leader Thune files cloture on Clarity Act, setting up Sept. 15 Senate voteThe Block · 2d ago
- Senate Keeps Clarity Act Alive With Crypto Bill Vote Set for SeptemberDecrypt · 2d ago
- US Senate to vote on advancing CLARITY Act in September after Thune files clotureCointelegraph · 2d ago
- U.S. Senate opens first stage of crypto Clarity Act voting to give bill a chance next monthCoinDesk · 2d ago
- Weekly Wrap: Bitcoin Hit By Coldcard Hack And Clarity Act DisappointmentYahoo Finance · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Raphael Warnock vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote. Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
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