Will Ra'am win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Q: Will Ra'am win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Prediction markets currently price this at 90%. A YES share costs 90.1¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 11.0% over 2.2mo.

Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?$9k liquidity$382 volumecloses 2.2mo

WorldIsraelPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionIsrael Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 90.1¢
Implied chance: 90.1%
Return if right: 11.0%
Spread cost: 12%

If you put in $100

You get 111.0 shares at 90.1¢ each.

YES wins: $110.99 back, a profit of $10.99. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.49.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 12.3¢
Implied chance: 12.3%
Return if right: 713.0%
Spread cost: 11%

If you put in $100

You get 813.0 shares at 12.3¢ each.

NO wins: $813.01 back, a profit of $713.01. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $87.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $800.90.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 04:20 AM

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Ra'am win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).