Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $178.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $1328.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.53.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Indonesia’s Prabowo Taps Destry Damayanti as Central Bank Chief to Calm MarketsBloomberg · 5h ago
- Indonesia closes national park in East Java as wildfire expandsAl Jazeera · 22h ago
- Indonesia: Mount Bromo wildfire grows, spurs park closureDeutsche Welle · 1d ago
- JBS forms meat joint venture with Indonesia’s sovereign-wealth fundYahoo Finance · 3d ago
- JBS Shares Surge After $2.5 Billion Deal With Indonesia FundBloomberg · 3d ago
- Indonesia’s Plan to Overhaul Commodity Exports Is Still in FluxBloomberg · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Prabowo Subianto ceases to be President of the Republic of Indonesia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Prabowo Subianto's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Prabowo Subianto and the government of Indonesia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.