Will PQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 18.0¢
- Implied chance
- 18.0%
- Return if right
- 455.6%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 555.6 shares at 18.0¢ each.
YES wins: $555.56 back, a profit of $455.56. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $32.68 of that profit. Without it you would make $488.24.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 84.0¢
- Implied chance
- 84.0%
- Return if right
- 19.0%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.
NO wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $20.48.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Quebec governing party: Trump is 'real adversary'The Hill · 48m ago
- Quebec separatist says no independence referendum while Trump in officeAl Jazeera · 10d ago
- Hydro-Quebec Inks $36 Billion Energy Deal With NewfoundlandBloomberg · 11d ago
- Cowboys Fringants Bassist Is Named Quebec’s Chief ScientistThe New York Times · 26d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will PQ finish in second place in the Quebec general electio…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
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