Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 71.0¢
- Implied chance
- 71.0%
- Return if right
- 40.8%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 140.8 shares at 71.0¢ each.
YES wins: $140.85 back, a profit of $40.85. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.01 of that profit. Without it you would make $42.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 31.0¢
- Implied chance
- 31.0%
- Return if right
- 222.6%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 322.6 shares at 31.0¢ each.
NO wins: $322.58 back, a profit of $222.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 04:50 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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