Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?

Q: Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 93%. A YES share costs 93.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 7.5% over 9.2mo.

Next Premier of Quebec$20k liquidity$43k volumecloses 9.2mo

Global ElectionsQuebecElectionsPoliticsCanadaMain Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 93.0¢
Implied chance: 93.0%
Return if right: 7.5%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.

YES wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.17 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.70.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 9.0¢
Implied chance: 9.0%
Return if right: 1011.1%
Spread cost: 12%

If you put in $100

You get 1111.1 shares at 9.0¢ each.

NO wins: $1111.11 back, a profit of $1011.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $138.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $1150.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 08:33 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.