Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Q: Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 0.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 12400.0% over 2.7mo.

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026$141k liquidity$785k volumecloses 2.7mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.8¢
Implied chance: 0.8%
Return if right: 12400.0%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 12500.0 shares at 0.8¢ each.

YES wins: $12500.00 back, a profit of $12400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $833.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $13233.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.3¢
Implied chance: 99.3%
Return if right: 0.7%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.

NO wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.76.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Pau Cubarsi0.7%

Latest: Aug 10, 10:40 AM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).