Will Partido Novo (NOVO) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?

Q: Will Partido Novo (NOVO) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 8%. A YES share costs 7.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1182.1% over 1.8mo.

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held$6k liquidity$979 volumecloses 1.8mo

World ElectionsPoliticsBrazilElectionsWorldGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 7.8¢
Implied chance: 7.8%
Return if right: 1182.1%
Spread cost: 38%

If you put in $100

You get 1282.1 shares at 7.8¢ each.

YES wins: $1282.05 back, a profit of $1182.05. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $717.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $1900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.8¢
Implied chance: 97.8%
Return if right: 2.2%
Spread cost: 57%

If you put in $100

You get 102.2 shares at 97.8¢ each.

NO wins: $102.25 back, a profit of $2.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.01 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.26.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 03:29 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).