Will Partido Missão (MISSÃO) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?

Q: Will Partido Missão (MISSÃO) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 3%. A YES share costs 2.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 3900.0% over 1.8mo.

Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner$19k liquidity$7k volumecloses 1.8mo

World ElectionsElectionsPoliticsBrazilGlobal ElectionsMain Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 2.5¢
Implied chance: 2.5%
Return if right: 3900.0%
Spread cost: 29%

If you put in $100

You get 4000.0 shares at 2.5¢ each.

YES wins: $4000.00 back, a profit of $3900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1555.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $5455.56.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.9¢
Implied chance: 98.9%
Return if right: 1.1%
Spread cost: 39%

If you put in $100

You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.

NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.72 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.83.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 03:30 PM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election. In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).