Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Q: Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 10%. A YES share costs 10.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 900.0% over 1.9mo.

Quebec General Election Winner$19k liquidity$99k volumecloses 1.9mo

Main ElectionWorldWorld ElectionsElectionsPoliticsGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 10.0¢
Implied chance: 10.0%
Return if right: 900.0%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.

YES wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $52.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $952.63.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 91.0¢
Implied chance: 91.0%
Return if right: 9.9%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 109.9 shares at 91.0¢ each.

NO wins: $109.89 back, a profit of $9.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.50.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 02:57 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Cowboys Fringants Bassist Is Named Quebec’s Chief ScientistThe New York Times · 8d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).