Will PAIS gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.4¢
- Implied chance
- 0.4%
- Return if right
- 24900.0%
- Spread cost
- 38%
If you put in $100
You get 25000.0 shares at 0.4¢ each.
YES wins: $25000.00 back, a profit of $24900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15000.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $39900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.9¢
- Implied chance
- 99.9%
- Return if right
- 0.1%
- Spread cost
- 60%
If you put in $100
You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.
NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 5, 04:14 AM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Salvadorans with TPS don’t know how long their protections will lastNBC News · 18d ago
- Trump administration allows TPS to continue for Salvadorans – for nowNPR · 24d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will PAIS gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legisla…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election, compared to before the election. For the purposes of this market, the number of seats a party held before the election will be the number of seats attributed to that party in the official final results of the February 4, 2024 Salvadoran legislative election, as published by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador: Nuevas Ideas (NI) 54, ARENA 2, PCN 2, PDC 1, and Vamos 1. All other parties will be considered to have held 0 seats. Changes to the composition of the Legislative Assembly after the 2024 election, including resignations, replacements, party switches, or changes in parliamentary-group affiliation, will not be considered. A party's seats gained will be calculated as the number of seats attributed to that party in the official results of the 2027 election minus the number of seats it held before the election, as defined above. This figure may be zero or negative. If the results are not known definitively by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. Seats will be counted only where they are attributed to the specified party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador (https://www.tse.gob.sv/).
Source: https://www.tse.gob.sv/
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