Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Q: Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Prediction markets currently price this at 0%. A YES share costs 0.4¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 24900.0% over 1.6y.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?$36k liquidity$2k volumecloses 1.6y

SpainPoliticsElectionsparliamentMain ElectionPedro Sanchez

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.4¢
Implied chance: 0.4%
Return if right: 24900.0%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 25000.0 shares at 0.4¢ each.

YES wins: $25000.00 back, a profit of $24900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3571.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $28471.43.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 14%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.35.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 04:21 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.