Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.3¢
- Implied chance
- 0.3%
- Return if right
- 33233.3%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 33333.3 shares at 0.3¢ each.
YES wins: $33333.33 back, a profit of $33233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $39900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.8¢
- Implied chance
- 99.8%
- Return if right
- 0.2%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.
NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 10:54 AM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- OpenAI acquires NextSlide to support ChatGPT developmentYahoo Finance · 5h ago
- Monica Barbaro Teases Luca Guadagnino’s OpenAI Film ‘Artificial,’ Addresses Timothée Chalamet’s Ballet CommentsThe Hollywood Reporter · 2d ago
- OpenAI acquires presentation startup NextSlideTechCrunch · 2d ago
- OpenAI acquires presentation startup NextSlideYahoo Finance · 2d ago
- OpenAI to pause some work on AI model Astra due to security concernsThe Guardian · 2d ago
- OpenAI says it slowed Astra model development over security concernsTechCrunch · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at marke…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Other outcomes in OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?