Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?

Q: Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 0.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 12400.0% over 1.3mo.

Which week will OpenAI release Astra?$9k liquidity$1k volumecloses 1.3mo

AIgptTechOpenAIsam altmanAI Releases

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.8¢
Implied chance: 0.8%
Return if right: 12400.0%
Spread cost: 44%

If you put in $100

You get 12500.0 shares at 0.8¢ each.

YES wins: $12500.00 back, a profit of $12400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9722.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $22122.22.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.9¢
Implied chance: 99.9%
Return if right: 0.1%
Spread cost: 78%

If you put in $100

You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.

NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.45.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 3, 01:15 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.