Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 17.0¢
- Implied chance
- 17.0%
- Return if right
- 488.2%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 588.2 shares at 17.0¢ each.
YES wins: $588.24 back, a profit of $488.24. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $506.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 84.0¢
- Implied chance
- 84.0%
- Return if right
- 19.0%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.
NO wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.76.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- AI giants 'not being nearly careful enough,' warns outgoing OpenAI safety engineerDeutsche Welle · 5h ago
- OpenAI safety employee resigns, claiming the company’s ‘culture is broken’TechCrunch · 11h ago
- OpenAI Banned PewDiePie Twice While He Built Ajax, an Uncensored AI That Will Run on Your PCDecrypt · 11h ago
- OpenAI's Altman: Ascribing religion to models a "safety issue"Axios · 12h ago
- An OpenAI safety employee has quit and is sounding the alarmThe Verge · 13h ago
- OpenAI says its review into hacks, including on Australian government sites, is costing $500,000 a dayThe Guardian · 22h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format. Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar. A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar. Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.