Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.8¢
- Implied chance
- 2.8%
- Return if right
- 3471.4%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 3571.4 shares at 2.8¢ each.
YES wins: $3571.43 back, a profit of $3471.43. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $274.73 of that profit. Without it you would make $3746.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.6¢
- Implied chance
- 97.6%
- Return if right
- 2.5%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 102.5 shares at 97.6¢ each.
NO wins: $102.46 back, a profit of $2.46. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 2, 03:09 PM7 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- OpenAI’s Medicare attack has exposed Australia’s ‘tech debt’. Fixing it could bring a big bill for taxpayersThe Guardian · 12m ago
- OpenAI disclose another hack on government department in AustraliaThe Guardian · 5h ago
- OpenAI fires workers for 'mishandling sensitive information'BBC Business · 14h ago
- OpenAI Says People Linked to China's Moonshot Tried to Copy Its AI's Hidden ReasoningDecrypt · 19h ago
- California attorney general subpoenas OpenAI over cyber incidentsThe Hill · 20h ago
- FTC launches probe into OpenAI, Anthropic over model consumer risksThe Hill · 20h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 202…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Other outcomes in Which company has the best AI model end of October?
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