Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?

Q: Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 5%. A YES share costs 4.7¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2027.7% over 12d.

#2 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)$1k liquidity$4k volumecloses 12d

AITechAI Rankings

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 4.7¢
Implied chance: 4.7%
Return if right: 2027.7%
Spread cost: 47%

If you put in $100

You get 2127.7 shares at 4.7¢ each.

YES wins: $2127.66 back, a profit of $2027.66. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1793.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $3821.57.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.6¢
Implied chance: 99.6%
Return if right: 0.4%
Spread cost: 85%

If you put in $100

You get 100.4 shares at 99.6¢ each.

NO wins: $100.40 back, a profit of $0.40. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.62.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

OpenAI2.5%

Latest: Aug 19, 07:11 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs