Will One in a Million win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $83.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.0¢
- Implied chance
- 93.0%
- Return if right
- 7.5%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.
NO wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- One in a Million7.5%
- Nuisance Bear13.5%
- Tutu7.5%
- Musk5.2%
- Once Upon a Time in Harlem19.0%
- American Doctor17.5%
Latest: Aug 18, 04:32 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will One in a Million win Best Documentary Feature Film at t…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
- Will American Doctor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- Will Tutu win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- Will Nuisance Bear win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- Will Once Upon a Time in Harlem win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- Will Musk win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- Will Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?