Will Oman join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?

Q: Will Oman join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 8%. A YES share costs 8.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1150.0% over 4.2mo.

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?$9k liquidity$0 volumecloses 4.2mo

saudiMakkahTurkeyPakistanPoliticsTürkiye

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 8.0¢
Implied chance: 8.0%
Return if right: 1150.0%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.

YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $83.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1233.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 93.0¢
Implied chance: 93.0%
Return if right: 7.5%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.

NO wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.11.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 26, 02:40 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Oman join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: - the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or - the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory. Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.