Will Nthabiseng Tshivenga be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni?

Q: Will Nthabiseng Tshivenga be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni?

Prediction markets currently price this at 28%. A YES share costs 28.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 257.1% over 2.5mo.

Next Mayor of Ekurhuleni (Germiston)?$148 liquidity$38 volumecloses 2.5mo

PoliticsElectionsSouth AfricaMain ElectionGlobal ElectionsMayoral Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 28.0¢
Implied chance: 28.0%
Return if right: 257.1%
Spread cost: 55%

If you put in $100

You get 357.1 shares at 28.0¢ each.

YES wins: $357.14 back, a profit of $257.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $309.52 of that profit. Without it you would make $566.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.0¢
Implied chance: 98.0%
Return if right: 2.0%
Spread cost: 88%

If you put in $100

You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.

NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $17.65.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 20, 10:28 AM1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026. Ekurhuleni’s mayor will be elected by the newly constituted council at its inaugural meeting, which is expected to be held within 14 days of the municipal election, by November 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Ekurhuleni following the 2026 South African municipal elections. A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Ekurhuleni City Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South Africa (https://elections.org.za); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.