Will Norway win the UEFA EURO 2028?

Q: Will Norway win the UEFA EURO 2028?

Prediction markets currently price this at 8%. A YES share costs 8.1¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1134.6% over 1.8y.

UEFA EURO 2028: Winner$51k liquidity$4k volumecloses 1.8y

UEFAEurosSoccerSports

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 8.1¢
Implied chance: 8.1%
Return if right: 1134.6%
Spread cost: 14%

If you put in $100

You get 1234.6 shares at 8.1¢ each.

YES wins: $1234.57 back, a profit of $1134.57. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $183.87 of that profit. Without it you would make $1318.44.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.0¢
Implied chance: 94.0%
Return if right: 6.4%
Spread cost: 16%

If you put in $100

You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.

NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.20 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.58.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 04:17 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Norway win the UEFA EURO 2028?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.