Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 20.0¢
- Implied chance
- 20.0%
- Return if right
- 400.0%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 500.0 shares at 20.0¢ each.
YES wins: $500.00 back, a profit of $400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $55.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $455.56.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 84.0¢
- Implied chance
- 84.0%
- Return if right
- 19.0%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.
NO wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $21.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- North Korea fires ballistic missile towards the sea, South Korea saysAl Jazeera · 22h ago
- South Korea’s military says North Korea fired projectile toward its eastern watersABC News · 23h ago
- Trump shrugs off South Korea's uncertainty on $54B Alaska energy investmentThe Hill · 1d ago
- Trump threatens to double tariffs on South Korea if they do not pay for Alaska natural gas pipeline – as it happenedThe Guardian · 1d ago
- South Korea demands Ukraine apology, warns of actionDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
- South Korea demands Ukraine apology over POW disclosureDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by Decembe…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, North and South Korea engage in direct talks, defined as an official meeting or communication between government representatives of both sides, conducted without a third-party relaying messages, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The talks may be in-person, by phone, or virtual, and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media. Routine military deconfliction, backchannel exchanges, or talks conducted entirely through another country or organization will not count. The resolutions source will be a consensus of credible reporting.