Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 25.0¢
- Implied chance
- 25.0%
- Return if right
- 300.0%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 400.0 shares at 25.0¢ each.
YES wins: $400.00 back, a profit of $300.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $44.44 of that profit. Without it you would make $344.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 80.0¢
- Implied chance
- 80.0%
- Return if right
- 25.0%
- Spread cost
- 14%
If you put in $100
You get 125.0 shares at 80.0¢ each.
NO wins: $125.00 back, a profit of $25.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $29.03.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- South Korea's president highlights US alliance after Trump reduces joint exercisesThe Hill · 4h ago
- Kelly on reduced joint exercises with South Korea: Trump should 'read some history'The Hill · 6h ago
- Trump orders military to reduce exercises with South Korea over refusal to help denuclearize IranCBS News · 7h ago
- South Korea joins more than 30 jurisdictions restricting Polymarket accessCoinDesk · 9h ago
- South Korea calls for solid US alliance after Trump says 'good relationship' with Kim Jong UnFrance 24 · 11h ago
- South Korea moves to block Polymarket over gambling concernsCointelegraph · 11h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by Decembe…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, North and South Korea engage in direct talks, defined as an official meeting or communication between government representatives of both sides, conducted without a third-party relaying messages, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The talks may be in-person, by phone, or virtual, and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media. Routine military deconfliction, backchannel exchanges, or talks conducted entirely through another country or organization will not count. The resolutions source will be a consensus of credible reporting.