Will Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia win the Vaimauga 3 by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 44.0¢
- Implied chance
- 44.0%
- Return if right
- 127.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 227.3 shares at 44.0¢ each.
YES wins: $227.27 back, a profit of $127.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $132.56.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 58.0¢
- Implied chance
- 58.0%
- Return if right
- 72.4%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 172.4 shares at 58.0¢ each.
NO wins: $172.41 back, a profit of $72.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $75.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia43.0%
- Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo31.5%
- Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo11.5%
- Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni4.8%
Latest: Sep 3, 01:16 AM
Latest news
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How this market resolves
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).